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The Flaw of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2012-03-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118073759

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Book The Flaw of Averages Description/Summary:

Reveals how and why personal finance and business plans based on mathematical assumptions are often wrong and how probability management can help remedy problems with communicating uncertainty and risk.

The Flaw of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2012-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118373583

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Book The Flaw of Averages Description/Summary:

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have amajor financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are oftenill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day webase our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether theybe next month’s sales, next year’s costs, ortomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, SamSavage­known for his creative exposition of difficultsubjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessingrisk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plansbased on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas asdiverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climatechange. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, hebravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex conceptsin plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web sitecontains numerous animations and simulations to further connect theseat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of theirpants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugsa single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain futurequantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of theemerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problemthough a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into asingle spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions wemake every day in business, government, and our personal lives. SamSavage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested readerthe insight and the tools to deal effectively with thoseuncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw ofAverages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary ofDefense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been anacademic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book,Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable,and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate inEconomics

The Flaw of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage,Harry M. Markowitz
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2009-06-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470488126

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Book The Flaw of Averages Description/Summary:

"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." —William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible . . . the Distribution String . . . represents a major breakthrough in the communication of risk and uncertainty." —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics "This is a book written for laymen with enough interesting insights to engage even the most scholarly professional." —Douglas Hubbard, author of How to Measure Anything "Sam Savage is the Edward Tufte of risk." —Matthew Raphaelson, Executive Vice President, Wells Fargo A GROUNDBREAKING MUST-READ FOR ANYONE WHO MAKES BUSINESS DECISIONS IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage—known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects—describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Savage refers to anachronistic statistical jargon as Red Words, which he defines as things that may not be uttered in a singles bar. Instead, he presents complex concepts in plain English (Green Words), backed up by interactive simulations at www.FlawofAverages.com, which connect the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants. Savage also presents the emerging field of Probability Management aimed at curing the Flaw of Averages through more transparent communication of uncertainty and risk. Savage argues that this is a problem that must be solved if we are to improve the stability of our economy, and that we cannot repeat the recent mistakes of applying "steam era" statistics to "information age" risks.

Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation

Author : Paolo Brandimarte
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2014-06-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118594513

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Book Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation Description/Summary:

An accessible treatment of Monte Carlo methods, techniques, and applications in the field of finance and economics Providing readers with an in-depth and comprehensive guide, the Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation: Applications in Financial Engineering, Risk Management, and Economics presents a timely account of the applicationsof Monte Carlo methods in financial engineering and economics. Written by an international leading expert in thefield, the handbook illustrates the challenges confronting present-day financial practitioners and provides various applicationsof Monte Carlo techniques to answer these issues. The book is organized into five parts: introduction andmotivation; input analysis, modeling, and estimation; random variate and sample path generation; output analysisand variance reduction; and applications ranging from option pricing and risk management to optimization. The Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation features: An introductory section for basic material on stochastic modeling and estimation aimed at readers who may need a summary or review of the essentials Carefully crafted examples in order to spot potential pitfalls and drawbacks of each approach An accessible treatment of advanced topics such as low-discrepancy sequences, stochastic optimization, dynamic programming, risk measures, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods Numerous pieces of R code used to illustrate fundamental ideas in concrete terms and encourage experimentation The Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation: Applications in Financial Engineering, Risk Management, and Economics is a complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, as well as a supplement for MBA and graduate-level courses on Monte Carlo methods and simulation.

Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking

Author : Stephen K. Campbell
Publisher : Courier Corporation
Release : 2012-05-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780486140513

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Book Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking Description/Summary:

Nontechnical survey helps improve ability to judge statistical evidence and to make better-informed decisions. Discusses common pitfalls: unrealistic estimates, improper comparisons, premature conclusions, and faulty thinking about probability. 1974 edition.

The End of Average

Author : Todd Rose
Publisher : HarperCollins
Release : 2016-01-19
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780062358387

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Book The End of Average Description/Summary:

Are you above average? Is your child an A student? Is your employee an introvert or an extrovert? Every day we are measured against the yardstick of averages, judged according to how closely we come to it or how far we deviate from it. The assumption that metrics comparing us to an average—like GPAs, personality test results, and performance review ratings—reveal something meaningful about our potential is so ingrained in our consciousness that we don’t even question it. That assumption, says Harvard’s Todd Rose, is spectacularly—and scientifically—wrong. In The End of Average, Rose, a rising star in the new field of the science of the individual shows that no one is average. Not you. Not your kids. Not your employees. This isn’t hollow sloganeering—it’s a mathematical fact with enormous practical consequences. But while we know people learn and develop in distinctive ways, these unique patterns of behaviors are lost in our schools and businesses which have been designed around the mythical “average person.” This average-size-fits-all model ignores our differences and fails at recognizing talent. It’s time to change it. Weaving science, history, and his personal experiences as a high school dropout, Rose offers a powerful alternative to understanding individuals through averages: the three principles of individuality. The jaggedness principle (talent is always jagged), the context principle (traits are a myth), and the pathways principle (we all walk the road less traveled) help us understand our true uniqueness—and that of others—and how to take full advantage of individuality to gain an edge in life. Read this powerful manifesto in the ranks of Drive, Quiet, and Mindset—and you won’t see averages or talent in the same way again.

The Flaw of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2012-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118373576

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Book The Flaw of Averages Description/Summary:

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have amajor financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are oftenill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day webase our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether theybe next month’s sales, next year’s costs, ortomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, SamSavage­known for his creative exposition of difficultsubjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessingrisk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plansbased on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas asdiverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climatechange. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, hebravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex conceptsin plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web sitecontains numerous animations and simulations to further connect theseat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of theirpants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugsa single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain futurequantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of theemerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problemthough a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into asingle spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions wemake every day in business, government, and our personal lives. SamSavage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested readerthe insight and the tools to deal effectively with thoseuncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw ofAverages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary ofDefense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been anacademic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book,Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable,and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate inEconomics

The Flaw of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage
Publisher : Wiley
Release : 2009-06-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0471381977

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Book The Flaw of Averages Description/Summary:

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

Value Investing

Author : James Montier
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2010-02-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470685181

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Book Value Investing Description/Summary:

"As with his weekly column, James Montier's Value Investing is a must read for all students of the financial markets. In short order, Montier shreds the 'efficient market hypothesis', elucidates the pertinence of behavioral finance, and explains the crucial difference between investment process and investment outcomes. Montier makes his arguments with clear insight and spirited good humor, and then backs them up with cold hard facts. Buy this book for yourself, and for anyone you know who cares about their capital!" —Seth Klarman, President, The Baupost Group LLC The seductive elegance of classical finance theory is powerful, yet value investing requires that we reject both the precepts of modern portfolio theory (MPT) and pretty much all of its tools and techniques. In this important new book, the highly respected and controversial value investor and behavioural analyst, James Montier explains how value investing is the only tried and tested method of delivering sustainable long-term returns. James shows you why everything you learnt at business school is wrong; how to think properly about valuation and risk; how to avoid the dangers of growth investing; how to be a contrarian; how to short stocks; how to avoid value traps; how to hedge ignorance using cheap insurance. Crucially he also gives real time examples of the principles outlined in the context of the 2008/09 financial crisis. In this book James shares his tried and tested techniques and provides the latest and most cutting edge tools you will need to deploy the value approach successfully. It provides you with the tools to start thinking in a different fashion about the way in which you invest, introducing the ways of over-riding the emotional distractions that will bedevil the pursuit of a value approach and ultimately think and act differently from the herd.

Picturing the Uncertain World

Author : Howard Wainer
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Release : 2011-10-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780691152677

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Book Picturing the Uncertain World Description/Summary:

From the publisher. This book explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a New Yorker cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world. Picturing the Uncertain World takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs.

Decision Making with Insight

Author : Sam L. Savage
Publisher : Duxbury Press
Release : 2003
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39076002356249

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Book Decision Making with Insight Description/Summary:

Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.

Flexibility in Engineering Design

Author : Richard De Neufville,Stefan Scholtes
Publisher : MIT Press
Release : 2011-08-12
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780262297332

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Book Flexibility in Engineering Design Description/Summary:

A guide to using the power of design flexibility to improve the performance of complex technological projects, for designers, managers, users, and analysts. Project teams can improve results by recognizing that the future is inevitably uncertain and that by creating flexible designs they can adapt to eventualities. This approach enables them to take advantage of new opportunities and avoid harmful losses. Designers of complex, long-lasting projects—such as communication networks, power plants, or hospitals—must learn to abandon fixed specifications and narrow forecasts. They need to avoid the “flaw of averages,” the conceptual pitfall that traps so many designs in underperformance. Failure to allow for changing circumstances risks leaving significant value untapped. This book is a guide for creating and implementing value-enhancing flexibility in design. It will be an essential resource for all participants in the development and operation of technological systems: designers, managers, financial analysts, investors, regulators, and academics. The book provides a high-level overview of why flexibility in design is needed to deliver significantly increased value. It describes in detail methods to identify, select, and implement useful flexibility. The book is unique in that it explicitly recognizes that future outcomes are uncertain. It thus presents forecasting, analysis, and evaluation tools especially suited to this reality. Appendixes provide expanded explanations of concepts and analytic tools.

Beginning Statistics

Author : Ian Diamond,Julie Jefferies
Publisher : SAGE
Release : 2013-02-26
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781446223482

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Book Beginning Statistics Description/Summary:

`The clarity, simplicity and use of many practical examples makes this book very useful, primarily for under- and postgraduate students′ - Journal of Biosocial Science With an emphasis on description, examples, graphs and displays rather than statistical formulae, this book is the ideal introductory guide for students across the social sciences. It shows how all students can understand the basic ideas of statistics at a level appropriate with being a good social scientist. The authors explain the right ways to present data, how to describe a set of data using summary statistics and how to infer what is going on in a population when all you have to go on is the sample. The book uses small data sets to help students understand the basic principles, and no mathematics or statistical background is assumed.

How to Lie with Statistics

Author : Darrell Huff
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Release : 2010-12-07
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780393070873

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Book How to Lie with Statistics Description/Summary:

If you want to outsmart a crook, learn his tricks—Darrell Huff explains exactly how in the classic How to Lie with Statistics. From distorted graphs and biased samples to misleading averages, there are countless statistical dodges that lend cover to anyone with an ax to grind or a product to sell. With abundant examples and illustrations, Darrell Huff’s lively and engaging primer clarifies the basic principles of statistics and explains how they’re used to present information in honest and not-so-honest ways. Now even more indispensable in our data-driven world than it was when first published, How to Lie with Statistics is the book that generations of readers have relied on to keep from being fooled.

The Flawed Architect

Author : Jussi M. Hanhimaki
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Release : 2004-09-09
Category : Biography & Autobiography
ISBN : 0195346742

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Book The Flawed Architect Description/Summary:

Henry Kissinger dominated American foreign relations like no other figure in recent history. He negotiated an end to American involvement in the Vietnam War, opened relations with Communist China, and orchestrated d?tente with the Soviet Union. Yet he is also the man behind the secret bombing of Cambodia and policies leading to the overthrow of Chile's President Salvador Allende. Which is more accurate, the picture of Kissinger the skilled diplomat or Kissinger the war criminal? In The Flawed Architect, the first major reassessment of Kissinger in over a decade, historian Jussi Hanhimaki paints a subtle, carefully composed portrait of America's most famous and infamous statesman. Drawing on extensive research from newly declassified files, the author follows Kissinger from his beginnings in the Nixon administration up to the current controversy fed by Christopher Hitchens over whether Kissinger is a war criminal. Hanhimaki guides the reader through White House power struggles and debates behind the Cambodia and Laos invasions, the search for a strategy in Vietnam, the breakthrough with China, and the unfolding of Soviet-American detente. Here, too, are many other international crises of the period--the Indo-Pakistani War, the Yom Kippur War, the Angolan civil war--all set against the backdrop of Watergate. Along the way, Hanhimaki sheds light on Kissinger's personal flaws--he was obsessed with secrecy and bureaucratic infighting in an administration that self-destructed in its abuse of power--as well as his great strengths as a diplomat. We see Kissinger negotiating, threatening and joking with virtually all of the key foreign leaders of the 1970s, from Mao to Brezhnev and Anwar Sadat to Golda Meir. This well researched account brings to life the complex nature of American foreign policymaking during the Kissinger years. It will be the standard work on Kissinger for years to come.

The Wisdom of Crowds

Author : James Surowiecki
Publisher : Anchor
Release : 2005-08-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780307275059

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Book The Wisdom of Crowds Description/Summary:

In this fascinating book, New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.

The Art of Thinking Clearly

Author : Rolf Dobelli
Publisher : Harper Collins
Release : 2014-05-06
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780062359803

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Book The Art of Thinking Clearly Description/Summary:

Have you ever . . . Invested time in something that, in hindsight, just wasn't worth it? Paid too much in an eBay auction? Continued to do something you knew was bad for you? Sold stocks too late, or too early? Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances? Backed the wrong horse? These are examples of what the author calls cognitive biases, simple errors all of us make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices: whether in dealing with personal problems or business negotiations, trying to save money or earn profits, or merely working out what we really want in life—and strategizing the best way to get it. Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision making—at work, at home, every day. From why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

Because You Are Mine Part I

Author : Beth Kery
Publisher : Penguin
Release : 2012-07-31
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781101608494

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Book Because You Are Mine Part I Description/Summary:

THE NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLING PHENOMENON From Beth Kery, the national bestselling author of Explosive, comes a red-hot romance like no other—where the rules of attraction are broken with that first electrifying touch. Meet Francesca and Ian. The fantasies of what’s to come begin… Because You Are Mine, Part I Because You Tempt Me It starts with that first look, when you know you have to have him… Francesca Arno has been commissioned to create a grand centerpiece painting for the lobby of Ian Noble’s new skyscraper. It’s at a cocktail party in her honor that she first meets him—and the attraction is immediate for Francesca. It’s also bewildering. She’s not used to such a wholesale sexual response to a stranger. Enigmatic, darkly intense, with a commanding presence, Ian completely unnerves her. And she likes it. For Ian, she’s the kind of woman he can’t resist—one that comes all too rarely: a true innocent. But he can sense in her a desire to open up, to experiment, to give herself to the fantasies of a man in control. The first kiss, the first caress, the first challenge for a woman who craves what she’s never had—a man who gets what he wants. More to come. Don't miss Because You Are Mine, Part II, available 8/7

Statistics Done Wrong

Author : Alex Reinhart
Publisher : No Starch Press
Release : 2015
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781593276201

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Book Statistics Done Wrong Description/Summary:

Statistics Done Wrong describes how researchers often go wrong and teaches you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.

Foundations of Decision Analysis

Author : Ronald A. Howard,Ali E. Abbas
Publisher : Pearson College Division
Release : 2015-01-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0132336243

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Book Foundations of Decision Analysis Description/Summary:

For courses in Decision Making and Engineering. The Fundamentals of Analyzing and Making Decisions Foundations of Decision Analysis is a groundbreaking text that explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the First Edition teaches readers to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, readers will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.